
Vs, Ws, and a Boatload of Qs
by Zubin Driver
June 15, 2009
As investors have endured the choppy lurch that has taken markets down to unimagined depths and back to elated heights, with no middle ground between the two, talk of recovery is growing louder. G-8 finance ministers met over the weekend in advance of a G-8 leaders' meeting in July. While still focused on growth and stimulus, they are beginning to speak in earnest about 'exit strategies,' or how to retract the massive liquidity pumped into global economies to counter the recession.
Rather than purely concerning themselves with reflating decimated economies and asset prices, finance ministers are now looking around the corner to curbing inflation and burgeoning debt loads. The change in perspective has happened fast. Speaking to reporters, Jim Flaherty, Canada's finance minister, stated that "the risks between inflation and deflation are now equally balanced," but if he had been asked six months ago, "I would have said there was more risk of deflation." Though the economic situation remains tenuous, the tide of encouraging signs is swelling.
Recovery with a V or W? How about a U?
To someone who doesn't have the business channel, BNN, turned on in the background all day, financial commentators' talk of what the recovery will look like must sound like extraterrestrial gibberish. Will it take the shape of a V or a W? The V denotes a quick plunge to bottom, followed by an equally rapid rise, whereas a W indicates the same rapid fall and rise, but twice, also referred to as a 'double-dip' recession. The U would be like the V but slower, with more time spent on the bottom before a more gradual turn back up. The W and U shapes ought to make for more sustainable foundations on which a longer term recovery can build.
Also fascinating is that, though we all live through the same time period, there will be different interpretations of what has occurred and the shape events have taken (similar to the way that the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research didn't officially decide that a recession had begun in December 2007, until November 2008 ).
Stock markets will not operate with the same timing as the broader economy, but it is interesting to look at the shapes of the markets' charts. The TSX and Nasdaq have 'W' shapes (or in technical analysis jargon, 'double bottoms'), as they made lows in November, that were then retested in March. Slightly lower lows were made in March (the TSX March low was 170 points lower than November), but essentially, the November lows held. The Dow and S & P 500, on the other hand, broke through their November lows in March by 15% and have not since retested, so their shape is a 'V.' Clearly, the W shape is more sustainable, having retested and held at a given level, showing strong support there.



Don't forget the Qs
While the recovery may be underway, many questions remain that threaten to sway the ship's course. How will many countries, but most importantly America, deal with the massive levels of debt that have been racked up to fight the recession? How debilitating will these debt levels become when compounded with the demographic situation in which birth levels are declining and the baby boomers are retiring? Health care costs across the western world are growing too fast; in America social security funding, if current conditions hold, will be spent . How will social security funding be made sustainable? For western countries, as wages in the manufacturing sector and other blue collar areas drop, will other sectors that pay comparably emerge to take their place? Can developing world demand sustain global economic growth? And as that demand for commodities, so beneficial to Canadian markets and also an important barometer of economic health, pushes prices up, who can afford their costs? Might inflation shipwreck our fragile recovery?
Best regards,
Zubin
Zubin Driver
Investment Advisor
(W) 604 643-7608 / (F) 604 643-7606
Email: zubin_driver@canaccord.com
Canaccord Capital Corporation
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OFFICES IN MAJOR CENTRES ACROSS CANADA. MEMBER OF ALL CANADIAN STOCK EXCHANGES AND THE INVESTMENT INDUSTRY REGULATORY ORGANIZATION OF CANADA. MEMBER CANADIAN INVESTOR PROTECTION FUND (CIPF).
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